I really feel like the market is grasping for hope here on the medical front. Regardless of the market interpretation, this IS good news, and this article fleshes out some of the details that are missed in the headlines.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/17/is-remdesivir-the-drug-that-can-kill-the-coronavirus
Analyzing the Mortality Denominator (deaths / infected)
Don't read too much into the title of this link (below), as I believe it's rather misleading (and quite frankly - dangerous). However, it does shed some light on the overall infection rate (the denominator) and mortality of Covid-19. In a very brief overview, it suggests that based on the sample taken, and deaths observed in Santa Clara, the overall infection rate of the population is 2.49-4.16 percent with a mortality rate similar to the flu. At 328M people in the US, that (using the provided rate) suggests a total infection of about 8M to 14M people in early April. (At the time, the total confirmed infected was only about 250k-300k, implying a large population with only minor symptoms or entirely asymptomatic) The other way to look at this, is to examine the ratio of infected to observed deaths. However, the article makes note that does doesn't quite make sense for New York. "One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible."
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/
What the study does not account for (which they admit) were some of the differences in populations, including age. We know that New York largely accounts for many of the observed Covid-19 deaths. A quick google search reveals some of the differences between Santa Clara and New York. Short answer: New York comes out worse on all counts.
- smoking rate Santa Clara 7.7%
- smoking rate New York 14.1%
- average age Santa Clara 33.9
- average age New York 38.2
- obesity Santa Clara 21%
- obesity in New York 27.6%
https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/meta-analyses-reveal-who-should-be-more-cautious-of-covid-19-9cbca0e9706d
As a result, I would content that mortality rates are not like the flu, unless you are young and healthy, and is significantly more fatal (perhaps exponentially) for older and populations with pre-existing conditions.
My investing takeaway from this, to focus more on stocks that not just benefit from a re-opening of the economy, but specifically derive their revenues from younger demographics.
Lessons on Economic Reopening - "suppress and lift"
We should have learned a lot more from what other parts of the world ahead of us in this pandemic experiences. We didn't. And again, we should learn more from how others are reopening.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21213787/coronavirus-asia-waves-hong-kong-singapore-taiwan\
Just an all around good interview from a really smart guy: Bill Gates
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-microsoft-co-founder-bill-gates-on-past-pandemic-warnings.html
Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath is a newcomer to me in my world. He's someone definitely worth listening to. You might not like what he has to say, but nevertheless, that doesn't make him wrong. I'm particularly fond of his ability to silence the talking heads on CNBC.
https://www.socialcapital.com/annual-letters/2019
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